{"id":3701,"date":"2010-04-01T09:58:37","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T06:58:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/?p=3701"},"modified":"2010-04-01T09:58:37","modified_gmt":"2010-04-01T06:58:37","slug":"hem-kuculduk-hem-fakirlestik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/?p=3701","title":{"rendered":"HEM K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLD\u00dcK, HEM FAK\u0130RLE\u015eT\u0130K"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00dc\u0130K, 2009\u2019da ekonominin y\u00fczde 4,7 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise rekor bir dereceyle y\u00fczde 242 artt\u0131. \u00dclke ekonomisi 8 y\u0131ldan sonra y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ilk kez bu kadar y\u00fcksek oranda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fand\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, batma noktas\u0131na gelen Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n iki kat\u0131n\u0131 bile ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ortaya koydu. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin yetkili isimleri ve Ba\u015fbakan \u201ckriz bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7ecek\u201d demi\u015flerdi.

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BABACAN VE ERG\u0130N\u2019DEN \u0130T\u0130RAF<\/p>\n

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Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Babacan, \u201cYat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 belirsizlik alg\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 nedeniyle, y\u0131l b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 19,2 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u201d dedi. Sanayi ve Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Erg\u00fcn de, \u201c2009\u2019daki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme rakam\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizden ne boyutta etkilendi\u011fimizi net olarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcze koydu. Hasar tespiti y\u0131ll\u0131k itibariyle sonunda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u201d dedi<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) verilerine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2009’da y\u00fczde 4,7 oran\u0131nda darald\u0131. B\u00f6ylece, \u00fclke ekonomisi 8 y\u0131ldan sonra y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ilk kez bu kadar y\u00fcksek oranda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fand\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 toptan de\u011ferlendirmesinde y\u00fczde 4,7 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle batma noktas\u0131na gelen kom\u015fu \u00fclke Yunanistan’\u0131n iki kat\u0131n\u0131 bile ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ortaya koydu. Ekim 2008’de patlak veren k\u00fcresel ekonomik kriz sonras\u0131 2009’da ekonomik veriler bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyallerini bolca verirken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yetkili isimleri ve Ba\u015fbakan Tayyip Erdo\u011fan \u0131srarla “kriz bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7ecek” demi\u015flerdi. Sokaktaki yurtta\u015f ise h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu t\u00fcr a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle ekonomideki bu i\u00e7ler ac\u0131s\u0131 durum kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015f\u00f6yle sesleniyor:
“Hamdolsun \u00fclkemin diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn resmidir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki se\u00e7imlerde yeni slogan\u0131 \u015fu olmal\u0131. Durmak yok, fakirli\u011fe, i\u015fsizli\u011fe ve sefalete devam…”

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2001\u2019DEN SONRAK\u0130 \u0130LK K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcLME

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T\u00dc\u0130K, 2009’a son \u00e7eyre\u011fi ve y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131na ili\u015fkin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme) rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. 2009’un son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomi sabit fiyatlarla bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle resesyon d\u00f6neminden \u00e7\u0131karken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2009 genelinde ise y\u00fczde 4.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclerek 1999 ve 2001’den sonra ilk kez daralm\u0131\u015f oldu.

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T\u00dc\u0130K’in verilerine g\u00f6re, 2009’un d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde 2008’in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re sabit fiyatlarla Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 25 milyar 699 milyon TL oldu. Bu d\u00f6nemde cari fiyatlarla GSYH, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8.3 art\u0131\u015fla 169 milyar 736 milyon dolar olurken, \u00fcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH tahmininde cari fiyatlarla GSYH de\u011ferinin y\u00fczde 8 art\u0131\u015fla 251 milyar 821 milyon TL d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.

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2009 GSYH, cari fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 0.4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015fla 953 milyar 974 milyon TL, sabit fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019lik azal\u0131\u015fla 97 milyar 88 milyon TL oldu. Dolar baz\u0131nda GSYH 2008\u2019e g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 16.8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyle 617 milyar 611 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi Orta Vadeli Program’da (OVP) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 6’l\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme hedefinin 1.3 puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 2009’da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH de\u011feri cari fiyatlarla 13 bin 269 TL, dolar cinsinden ise 8 bin 590 dolar olarak hesapland\u0131.

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RAKAMLAR S\u00dcREKL\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130\u015eT\u0130R\u0130LD\u0130

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T\u00dc\u0130K, 2008’in tamam\u0131nda ve 2009’un ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH verilerinde yine revizyona gitti. 2008 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce sabit fiyatlarla 102 milyar 164 milyon TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan GSYH, 101 milyar 922 milyon TL olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirildi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 0.9\u2019dan, 0.7\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. 2008’in ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 7\u2019ye, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 2.6\u2019ya, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 1\u2019den, y\u00fczde 0.9\u2019a \u00e7ekildi.

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2009’un birinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 14.7 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde ise y\u00fczde 14.5\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. 2009’un tarihi bir rekora imza atan ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme verisi ilk etapta y\u00fczde 13.8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha sonra bu veri y\u00fczde 14.3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 14.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olarak revize edilmi\u015fti. 2009’un ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak y\u00fczde 7.9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.7, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3.3 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ise 2.9 olarak d\u00fczeltildi. BirG\u00fcn, ANKA<\/p>\n

2009\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131nda, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmede tarihi rekor k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131

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T\u00dcRK\u0130YE, 2009’un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen y\u00fczde 14.5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyle T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet tarihinin ikinci ‘en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi’ni ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ekonomi, 2009 genelinde ya\u015fanan y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019lik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeyle 1999 ve 2001 sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ilk k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye imza atm\u0131\u015f oldu.

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2009’a ili\u015fkin revize edilen verilere g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye ekonomi ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 14.5\u2019le tarihi rekorlar\u0131ndan birini k\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1927’de y\u00fczde 12.8 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 1939-1945’i kapsayan \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan (\u0130kinci Payla\u015f\u0131m Sava\u015f\u0131) ekonomik anlamda \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r etkilenmesi nedeniyle 1941\u2019de y\u00fczde 10.3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 1945\u2019te tarihinin halen ula\u015f\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f en y\u00fcksek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme oran\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.4, 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5.7 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi b\u00f6ylece 2009’da, 1999 ve 2001’in ard\u0131ndan ilk defa k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat geriledi, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda rekor y\u00fckseli\u015f

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T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K), 2010 \u015eubat ‘D\u0131\u015f Ticaret’ istatistiklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K’e g\u00f6re, 2010 \u015eubat’\u0131nda ihracat, 2009’un ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1,3 gerileyerek 8 milyar 323 milyon dolar, ithalat y\u00fczde 28,3 artarak 11 milyar 640 milyon dolar oldu. Ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 242,4 artarak 6 milyar 974 milyon dolara y\u00fckseldi. 2009’un ocak-\u015fubat d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 88,9 olan ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 ise bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 69,9’a geriledi

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\u0130KT\u0130SAT\u00c7I MUSTAFA S\u00d6NMEZ:

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T\u00dc\u0130K rakamlar\u0131 yoksulla\u015fman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor
T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu verilerin sebebi 2009 son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki \u00fclkeye s\u0131cak para giri\u015finin artmas\u0131. D\u0131\u015f talepte art\u0131\u015f, stoklu \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. Ancak bu geli\u015fmelere ve bu verilere totalde bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015fin vehametini azaltm\u0131yor. Avrupa’ya k\u0131yasla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck. Bu rakamlar yoksulla\u015fman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7eveden bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin beklenenin alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131na sevinmek yoksulla\u015fmaya sevinmekle ayn\u0131 anlama geliyor. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi Avrupa ekonomisine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. D\u0131\u015f pazara ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011funuz s\u00fcrece de bu yoksulla\u015fma ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak.

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PROF. DR. OSMAN ALTUN:

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Y\u00fczde 4,7 kayg\u0131 verici bir tablo
MARMARA \u00dcniversitesi \u0130ktisadi ve \u0130dari Bilimler Fak. \u0130\u015fl. B\u00f6l. B\u015fk. Prof. Dr. Osman Altun: “\u00d6ncelikle bu verilerin g\u00fcvenirli\u011finin sorgulanmas\u0131 gerekir. Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonominin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclkede neye istinaden hangi veriye g\u00f6re bu analizleri yap\u0131yorsunuz? Bu verilerin tamam\u0131 tahminlere dayal\u0131d\u0131r ve sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir bilgi kayna\u011f\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmamaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fsizlik azalmad\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar artmad\u0131, h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 su\u00e7larda rekorlar, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ekler senetler havada u\u00e7u\u015fuyor, hacizler, kredi kart\u0131 borcu ma\u011fdurlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn katlanarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Bunlar g\u00fcn gibi ortadayken y\u00fczde 4,7 \u00e7ok ‘iyimser’ bir tablo. Ekonomi kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nmadan yap\u0131lan hi\u00e7bir veri analizi ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmamaktad\u0131r. Kayg\u0131 verici d\u00fczeyde ‘iyimser’ bir tablo.”<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00dc\u0130K, 2009\u2019da ekonominin y\u00fczde 4,7 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise rekor bir dereceyle y\u00fczde 242 artt\u0131. \u00dclke ekonomisi 8...<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ced"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.ced.org.tr\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}